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What kind of strategy framework this is

The conventional strategy framework answers the question: what move should we make?
It picks among options. It optimises for advantage. It assumes the environment holds still long enough for the move to land.

The environments most of my clients operate in do not hold still. A founder finds an ICP that worked last quarter and finds it cold this one. A scaleup is told by its accelerator that it must become a product company by Tuesday. A corporate operator inherits a portfolio company whose binding constraint moved overnight when a foundation model shifted the cost curve underneath it. The conventional question, "what move should we make?", arrives late.
By the time you have answered it, the constraint has rotated.

Critical Path Layers is built for the prior question. Given that the environment is moving, given that you have already chosen what to work on, given that your resources are finite, which layer of work is load-bearing right now? It is a framework for sequencing under speed and uncertainty. It is diagnostic before it is prescriptive. It tells you which thing to solve first because solving anything else is, in expectation, a waste of the runway you have.

That is the kind of framework it is. The rest of this piece places it within the genealogy of strategy thinkers who have grappled with the same problem from different directions, names the specific debts CPL carries to each, and identifies the line CPL walks that none of them quite walks.

The architecture, briefly

CPL operates on five process layers. The layers describe the diagnostic work, not the content of any particular initiative. They sequence as follows:

  1. Situational awareness. What has moved, what is settling, where the dependencies have shifted.

  2. Dependency mapping. What depends on what; the structural read of the system.

  3. Binding constraint. Of all the dependencies, which is load-bearing right now.

  4. Gated sequence. The order of work that resolves the constraint, with explicit gate criteria.

  5. Constraint rotation. Watching for the signal that the situational read has gone stale and a re-entry at Layer 1 is needed.

The references that follow trace what each thinker contributes to the architecture above. Where contributions land at a specific process layer, the layer is named.

Click on the image to access to Interactive Visualisation

The strategy lineage CPL sits inside

Nine thinkers and traditions are load-bearing for what CPL does. Two more sit nearby and are worth naming as boundary cases.

  • Two boundary cases worth naming

    Steve Blank's customer development sits behind much of the upstream diagnostic work in CPL but is not directly cited.
    The non-delegability of founder discovery, the distinction between selling to learn and selling to close, the structural error of hiring a VP of Sales before customer development is done: all of these are Blank's contributions, absorbed into CPL's Layer 3 diagnostic toolkit.

  • Two boundary cases worth naming

    April Dunford's positioning work sits behind the same Layer 3 diagnostic surface. Her direct claim, that sales methodologies assume a stable positioning that the methodology itself cannot produce, is the empirical anchor for CPL's downstream-gravity dynamic (a cross-cutting pattern: the pull toward sales work when the upstream positioning gate is unresolved).

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What CPL claims newly

Reading this lineage, the natural question is: given that the parts are inherited, what does CPL itself contribute? Three claims.

The first claim is unit of analysis. Strategy frameworks operate on positions, options, advantages, choices. CPL operates on layers of work. A layer is not a position you hold or an option you select. It is a diagnostic act defined by what it depends on and what depends on it. Sequencing by layer is what dependency thinking looks like once it has been moved from the business model surface (Meda) to the organisational diagnostic surface (CPL). The work is the unit.

The second claim is about the density and self-service nature of the instrument layer. The lineage is not tool-free. Steve Blank shipped customer development as a methodology with attached manuals. Rita McGrath shipped discovery-driven planning with reverse financials and assumption checklists. Larry Keeley shipped Ten Types with diagnostic cards. Wardley shipped mapping as a practitioner discipline. The honest difference is narrower than "tools versus no tools": it is the cadence at which the framework expects the practitioner to run an instrument, and the conditions under which they can run it without the framework's author in the room.

CPL is built so that the diagnostic toolkit converges at Layer 3 and the practitioner can run an instrument alone in twenty minutes. The instruments are not ancillary aids that follow the concept; they are the test surface the framework holds itself to. If a pattern of instrument outputs consistently fails to surface the layer at fault, the framework needs revision, not the instrument. That falsifiability commitment, the framework wagering itself on its instruments, is rare in strategy work and is one of the structural commitments CPL is making.

The third claim is that strategy under speed and uncertainty needs a diagnostic prior, not a prescriptive one. The thinkers above broadly converge on this. Wardley's situational awareness, McGrath's discovery-driven planning, Reeves' context-dependent selection, Martin's choice cascade, Govindarajan's performance-engine reframe, all argue for diagnostic discipline before prescriptive action. CPL is prescriptive about sequence (which layer of diagnostic work comes next) and silent on content (what to actually do at each layer). It tells you which dependency is load-bearing right now and which downstream work will not convert until the upstream gate is cleared. It does not tell you what to do at Layer 3; only that you are at Layer 3, and that the constraint named here governs the gates at Layer 4. The prescription on content belongs to the operator, the founder, the team. The framework's job ends once the layer and its gate are named.

Where CPL falls in the genealogy

If the genealogy of strategy under uncertainty is plotted as a tree, four lines feed into CPL.

  1. The first line is the situational-awareness lineage running through Boyd's OODA loop into Wardley's maps. This is the line that argues strategy is observation before action. It feeds CPL's Layer 1 and Layer 5.

  2. The second is the dynamics-of-advantage lineage running from Christensen's disruption through McGrath's transient advantage. This is the line that argues advantage is not a position to defend but a cadence to manage. It informs CPL's Layer 5 most directly.

  3. The third is the dependency-thinking lineage running from systems thinking (Senge, Argyris) through Meda's business-model decomposition. This is the line that argues structure precedes content: until the dependency graph is understood, none of the optimisations stick. It feeds CPL's Layer 2.

  4. The fourth is the sense-making lineage running through Snowden's Cynefin framework. Snowden's distinction between complicated and complex systems is the conceptual root of why dependency thinking is necessary in the first place. It frames the whole stack.

CPL sits at the intersection of the four. It is observational like the first, cadence-aware like the second, dependency-ordered like the third, and complex-systems-honest like the fourth. It is also instrument-backed, which none of the four are by default.

The line worth walking publicly

There is a temptation in this kind of writing to claim more novelty than is honest. CPL is not a new strategy paradigm. It is a re-ordering of existing strategy insights into a sequenced diagnostic process with instruments attached at the layer that does the verdict work. The novelty is in the synthesis, the unit of analysis (diagnostic acts rather than positions), and the instrument-backed delivery. The novelty is not in the components.

The honest claim is narrower and stronger. CPL is the operating system for sequencing strategy work under speed and uncertainty. It inherits from the lineage above. It refuses to flatten strategy into a recipe. It produces instruments the practitioner can run without the framework's author in the room. That last commitment is the one that makes it useful at the cadence the environment now demands.

The work of placing CPL in this lineage is not for credibility.
It is for clarity. Naming the debts is what lets the new contribution stand on its own.

Further reading

  • Simon Wardley, Wardley Mapping (open-source book, 2015 onwards). The taxonomy of inertia is in the chapter of the same name.

  • Rita McGrath, The End of Competitive Advantage (Harvard Business Review Press, 2013), and Discovery-Driven Growth (with MacMillan).

  • Martin Reeves, Knut Haanaes, Janmejaya Sinha, Your Strategy Needs a Strategy (Harvard Business Review Press, 2015).

  • Clayton Christensen, The Innovator's Dilemma (Harvard Business Review Press, 1997) and Competing Against Luck (HarperBusiness, 2016) on Jobs to be Done.

  • Roger Martin, Playing to Win (Harvard Business Review Press, 2013) and "The Presumption of Guilt" (Medium, 2022).

  • Vijay Govindarajan and Chris Trimble, The Other Side of Innovation (Harvard Business Review Press, 2010).

  • Larry Keeley et al., Ten Types of Innovation (Wiley, 2013).

  • Philippe Meda, Innovation Copilots writings, 2016 to present. The 2016 piece "It's Time to Let Go of the Canvas" is the foundational text on the dependency claim.

  • Todd Jackson, "The 4 Levels of Product-Market Fit," First Round Capital (2024).

  • Steve Blank, The Four Steps to the Epiphany (2005).

  • April Dunford, Sales Pitch (2023).

  • Dave Snowden, the Cynefin framework. The original 2003 paper with Cynthia Kurtz, "The new dynamics of strategy: Sense-making in a complex and complicated world," remains the canonical statement.