[Playbook] The Growth Metrics Everyone Tracks—That Don't Actually Drive Growth

Whether you're a founder preparing for your next raise, a scaleup leader trying to crack sustainable growth, or a PE firm evaluating an acquisition—there's a good chance you're measuring the wrong things.

CAC. CLV. ROAS. Conversion rates. Retention.

These metrics feel rigorous. Investors ask for them. Boards track them. They fit neatly into financial models and pitch decks.

But they're built on a flawed assumption: that brands grow primarily through customer loyalty and retention.

They don't.

What Decades of Marketing Science Actually Shows

The Ehrenberg-Bass Institute—the world's largest centre for evidence-based marketing research—has spent decades studying how brands actually grow. Their findings, validated across hundreds of categories and dozens of countries, reveal something that contradicts most growth frameworks:

Growth comes from penetration (acquiring more buyers), not loyalty.

This isn't theory. It's empirical law. The Double Jeopardy Law shows that loyalty is largely a function of market share, not a driver of it. You cannot significantly grow a brand by making existing customers more loyal. You grow by reaching more people.

Yet most founders optimise for retention. Most scaleups double down on their "ideal customer profile." Most PE due diligence for example obsesses over CLV while barely glancing at penetration dynamics.

Why This Matters for You

If you're a startup founder: You're probably being told to find product-market fit with a narrow segment, then expand. But the evidence shows that successful brands have broad reach from early on—they don't "graduate" from niche to mass. Understanding this changes how you build, how you market, and how you tell your growth story to investors.

If you're scaling a business: You've likely hit a ceiling and you're not sure why. Often, it's because you've exhausted your "core" audience and your entire marketing engine is optimised for conversion, not reach. The 95-5 Rule is brutal here: at any given time, only 5% of your potential buyers are in-market. If you're only talking to them, you're ignoring 95% of your future revenue.

If you're in PE or evaluating an acquisition: Traditional due diligence can lead you to overpay for companies optimised for the wrong metrics—and undervalue companies with genuine penetration potential. When the value creation plan doubles down on loyalty programmes and conversion optimisation, you may be destroying enterprise value, not creating it.

A Playbook for Evidence-Based Growth

I've developed a comprehensive playbook that reimagines marketing and growth assessment through an evidence-based lens. It's written for growth and marketing decision makers conducting due diligence—and we are sure founders and operators will find it equally valuable for understanding what actually drives sustainable growth (and what sophisticated investors should be looking for).

What's Inside

Part I: Foundational Principles Why traditional growth metrics mislead, the empirical laws of brand growth, and the shift from performance marketing to investment marketing thinking.

Part II: The Diagnostic Framework How to assess penetration dynamics, mental availability (including Category Entry Points), distinctive brand assets, and physical availability—with specific metrics, methodologies, and red flags.

Part III: Marketing Effectiveness & Infrastructure Evaluating brand vs. demand investment balance, measurement sophistication, and the critical "repeatability engine" assessment—whether you can scale without heroics.

Part IV: Growth Potential & Risk Assessment Sizing real opportunities and identifying evidence-based red flags that traditional metrics miss entirely.

There is a Part V: Value Creation Roadmap A 100-day transformation plan for building marketing that compounds. and a Part VI with checklist & interview guides which I am happy to discuss if needed.

Download the Playbook

Parts I & II are available for free.

These sections alone will change how you think about growth—whether you're building a pitch deck, evaluating a target, or trying to understand why your marketing isn't scaling.

[Download Parts I & II — for free here]

Want the complete playbook (Part I to IV)? Contact us to discuss further.
Same if you want to dive into the specifics of a Value Creation roadmap or discuss how to concretely do any of these.